Retirement Security Projection Model

Retirement Security Projection Model® is used to model the expected retirement income derived from Social Security and retirement plans for birth cohorts from 1936-1965 with results broken out by gender and family status. This is combined with a hybrid model for analyzing retiree expenditures: stochastic for some expenditures (e.g., home health care and nursing facilities) and deterministic for others (e.g., housing and food). This results in a tool capable of analyzing the retirement income adequacy of various demographic groups under baseline assumptions as well as various policy scenarios. Studies using the model are presented.

"What Causes EBRI Retirement Readiness Ratings to Vary: Results from the 2014 Retirement Security Projection Model" [February 2014, EBRI Issue Brief #396]

"The Role of Social Security, Defined Benefits, and Private Retirement Accounts in the Face of the Retirement Crisis" [January 2014, EBRI Notes, Vol. 35, No. 1]

"How Much Would it Take? Achieving Retirement Income Equivalency between Final-Average-Pay Defined Benefit Plan Accruals and Voluntary Enrollment 401(k) Plans in the Private Sector" [December 2013, EBRI Notes, Vol. 34, No. 12]

"Reality Checks: A Comparative Analysis of Future Benefits from Private-Sector, Voluntary-Enrollment 401(k) Plans vs. Stylized, Final-Average-Pay Defined Benefit and Cash Balance Plans" [June 2013, EBRI Issue Brief #387]

"What a Sustained Low-yield Rate Environment Means for Retirement Income Adequacy: Results from the 2013 EBRI Retirement Security Projection Model" [June 2013, EBRI Notes, Vol. 34, No. 6]

"A Little Help: The Impact of On-line Calculators and Financial Advisors on Setting Adequate Retirement-Savings Targets: Evidence from the 2013 Retirement Confidence Survey" [March 2013, EBRI Notes, Vol. 34, No. 3]

"All or Nothing? An Expanded Perspective on Retirement Readiness" [November 2012, EBRI Notes, Vol. 33, No. 11]

"Increasing Default Deferral Rates in Automatic Enrollment 401(k) Plans: The Impact on Retirement Savings Success in Plans With Automatic Escalation" [September 2012, EBRI Notes, Vol. 33, No. 9]

"Is Working to Age 70 Really the Answer for Retirement Income Adequacy?" [August 2012, EBRI Notes, Vol. 33, No. 8]

"Retirement Readiness Ratings and Retirement Savings Shortfalls for Gen Xers: The Impact of Eligibility for Participation in a 401(k) Plan" [June 2012, EBRI Notes, Vol. 33, No. 6]

"Retirement Income Adequacy for Boomers and Gen Xers: Evidence from the 2012 EBRI Retirement Security Projection Model" [May 2012, EBRI Notes, Vol. 33, No. 5]

"Modifying the Federal Tax Treatment of 401(k) Plan Contributions: Projected Impact on Participant Account Balances" [March 2012, EBRI Notes, Vol. 33, No. 3]

"Tax Reform Options: Promoting Retirement Security" [November 2011, EBRI Issue Brief #364]

"The Importance of Defined Benefit Plans for Retirement Income Adequacy" [August 2011, EBRI Notes, Vol. 32, No. 8]

"Capping Tax-Preferred Retirement Contributions: Preliminary Evidence of the Impact of the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform Recommendations" [July 2011, EBRI Notes, Vol. 32, No. 7]

"The Impact of Deferring Retirement Age on Retirement Income Adequacy" [June 2011, EBRI Issue Brief #358]

"Retirement Income Adequacy: Alternative Thresholds and the Importance of Future Eligibility in Defined Contribution Retirement Plans" [April 2011, EBRI Notes, Vol. 32, No. 4]

"A Post-Crisis Assessment of Retirement Income Adequacy for Baby Boomers and Gen Xers" [February 2011, EBRI Issue Brief #354]

"The Impact of Auto-enrollment and Automatic Contribution Escalation on Retirement Income Adequacy" [November 2010, EBRI Issue Brief #349]

"Retirement Savings Shortfalls for Today's Workers" [October 2010, EBRI Notes, Vol. 31, No. 10]

"Retirement Income Adequacy for Today's Workers: How Certain, How Much Will It Cost, and How Does Eligibility for Participation in a Defined Contribution Plan Help?" [September 2010, EBRI Notes, Vol. 31, No. 9]

"The EBRI Retirement Readiness Rating:™ Retirement Income Preparation and Future Prospects" [July 2010, EBRI Issue Brief #344]

"Measuring Retirement Income Adequacy: Calculating Realistic Income Replacement Rates" [September 2006, EBRI Issue Brief #297]

"Americans’ Future Retirement Security: Implications of the EBRI-ERF Retirement Security Projection Model" [February 2004, EBRI Issue Brief #266]

"Can America Afford Tomorrow’s Retirees: Results From the EBRI-ERF Retirement Security Projection Model" [November 2003, EBRI Issue Brief #263]

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